O BREXIT E A UNIÃO EUROPÉIA

By: Michaell Lange,

29/03/16 –

 

O Reino Unido aplicou hoje o art.50 da União Européia (UE) que inicia oficialmente o processo de saída do país da UE. O art.50, ou “aviso prévio”, é o processo de dois anos de desliga um país membro, de todos os acordos comerciais, sociais e de segurança, com a UE. É o desligamento total de um sócio do seu clube. Essa é a primeira vez na história da UE que um país decide aplicar o artigo 50.

Depois do referendum Britânico em Junho de 2016, no qual os Britânicos decidiram pela saída da UE (o chamado Brexit), o então Primeiro Ministro David Cameron, que era a favor da permanência do país na UE, renunciou. Os Conservadores então, elegeram Theresa May como a nova líder do partido, que nas Leis Britânicas assume o posto de Primeiro Ministro depois de aceitar o convite da Rainha para formar um novo governo que deve durar até o final do atual mandato, que termina em 2020. A Primeira Ministra pode, se assim decidir, marcar novas eleições antes do fim do seu mandato.  Após assumir o comando do país, Theresa May voltou ao o palácio de Buckingham para pedir a assinatura da Rainha autorizando o governo a iniciar o processo de saída do país da UE. Faltava então, o pedido formal da Primeira Ministra Britânica ao Presidente do Conselho Europeu Donald Tusk, para que o processo de dois anos que desliga o Reino Unido de todas as atividades de membro da UE tivesse inicio. Isso aconteceu hoje.

Ao enviar a carta formal ao conselho Europeu, Theresa May declarou: “Este é um momento histórico no qual não há retorno”. Já o presidente do conselho Europeu, disse ao receber a carta da Primeira Ministra que; “não há razões para pretensões, hoje não é um dia feliz para a UE”.

A saída do Reino Unido da UE pode ser um marco histórico para um movimento global de rejeição do atual sistema de globalização que domina o mundo. Assim como o Reino Unido, a França, Italia e Holanda expressam grande descontentamento pelo qual a UE vem se comportando. A candidata a Presidente que lidera as pesquisas de intenção de voto na França, Marine Le Pen, promete tirar a França da UE caso seja eleita nas eleições gerais no mês que vem. Caso isso ocorra, será praticamente um milagre evitar o fim da União Européia.

No Reino Unido porém, as opiniões se dividem. Nas redes sociais o clima de grande tristeza divide espaço com o jubileu. Enquanto alguns falam em suicídio econômico, outros falam em liberação econômica. A grande verdade é que o país esta dividido. O resultado final do referendum deu 52% dos votos para a saída do país da UE contra 48% que votaram pela sua permanência. De fato, é difícil dizer o que irá acontecer. Quem votou pela saída (Brexit), acredita que o país poderá ditar suas próprias regras com relação a políticas migratórias e econômicas sem precisar da aprovação do conselho da UE. É o retorno do controle do país para as mãos do Parlamento Britânico, dizem. Quem votou pela permanência, acredita que a saída do país de um mercado com 450 milhões de consumidores é sem dúvidas um suicídio econômico, mesmo porque a economia Britânica é hoje extremamente dependente dos serviços financeiro da UE. A saída significa que ficará mais caro para os bancos operarem no Reino Unido por conta das tarifas impostas a quem não pertence a UE. Isso deve causar um êxodo dos serviços financeiro para países membros da UE, o que seria um desastre total para os Britânicos.

Os mais otimistas afirmam que a UE precisa do Reino Unido. Mais de um milhão carros Europeus como a AUDI, BMW e MERCEDES são vendidos por ano no Reino Unido. Seria loucura da UE tentar dificultar as operações deste mercado. Os pescadores Britânicos também estão mais otimistas. A saída do País da UE significa que barcos de pesca da França, Espanha e Portugal, por exemplo, não poderão mais pescar livremente em águas Britânicas. Mas vale lembrar também que barcos Britânicos não poderão mais operar em águas Européias. As Leis de cotas pesqueiras impostas pela UE também deixam de existir e passam a depender do que o Parlamento Britânico irá definir no futuro. Os produtores de produtos agrícolas também irão deixar de se beneficiar do subsidio Europeu que protege a agricultura Européia contra produtos mais baratos vindos de fora. Por outro lado, a saída do país da UE irá permitir que os Britânicos possam negociar acordos econômicos livremente com o resto do mundo, sem depender da aprovação do conselho Europeu.

Estudantes, tanto do Reino Unido quanto da UE perderão o beneficio de poder estudar livremente em outros países da UE. Essa medida tem sido duramente criticada, mas ainda pode ser negociada, assim como outras medidas, no decorrer dos próximos dois anos que encerram as relações de membro do Reino Unido com a UE. O Reino Unido continua fazendo parte da UE até o final do prazo de negociações, e o livre transito de pessoas e mercadorias entre o Reino Unido e os países membros da UE continuam valendo normalmente. A principal questão no momento se refere ao status dos mais de 1 milhão de Britânicos que vivem atualmente na França, Espanha, Portugal, Alemanha e outros países da UE, e os mais de dois milhões de Europeus da UE que vivem hoje no Reino Unido. A dúvida sobre este assunto e a falta de clarificação dos governos em garantir a permanência dos que ja se estabeleceram no país, tem levado milhares de pessoas a pedirem a naturalização nos países em que residem.

Ninguém rejeita o fato de que os próximos anos serão extremamente difíceis, tanto para o Reino Unido quanto para a UE. A adaptação e a transferencia das Leis Européias em Leis Britânicas podem levar até 10 anos segundo alguns especialistas. O governo Britânico também deve cortar impostos de grandes bancos para mante-los operando no país e proteger a economia do país. Mas, essa medida pode significar um corte no orçamento Britânico de até £100 bilhões de Libras e esse valor terá que ser tirado de algum lugar. É muito provável que os contribuintes terão que arcar com esta conta. Alguns especialistas dizem que estas medidas irão tornar o Reino Unido no mais novo paraíso fiscal, tornando o país um receptor de dinheiro sujo do resto do mundo.

As previsões sobre o futuro do Reino Unido e da UE são incertos. A única grande certeza é a de que o Reino Unido estará fora da UE dentro de dois anos, mas mesmo essa certeza é questionada. Se as negociações nos próximos dois anos não chegarem a um acordo que beneficie os dois lados, a Primeira Ministra Theresa May pode ser pressionada a marcar novas eleições. Um partido opositor poderia prometer o cancelamento do processo de saída do país da UE, revertendo o resultado do referendum com uma vitória numa possível eleição geral, mesmo que segundo o artigo 50 da UE, uma vez iniciado, o processo de saída é irreversível. Mas, considerando a incrível vitória de Trump nos EUA e a vitória do Brexit no referendum Britânico, fica difícil duvidar do futuro. Muita gente acredita que tudo é possível, mas só tempo irá dizer…

 

BRITISH REFERENDUM ON THE EUROPEAN UNION (OPINION)

By: Michaell Lange,

London, 10/06/16 –

 

Yesterday I posted my vote on the British Referendum on European Union. Like many of us I was confused and extremely disappointed by the way both sides of the campaign have been conducting their arguments to the public. It is no surprise that the trust on politicians is so low. The fact is, we cannot trust them! So I decided to do my own research and make a decision based on my feelings and experience. I have a degree in International Relations and Politics and this helped me to separate the truth from the false, at least as far as my eyes can see.

The first thing I have done was to go back to the bases of the European Union. What was the main reason for Europe to unite and create such a huge and complicated institution that we know today as The European Union? How did we get to the point we are today and what would be the real arguments to remain or to leave the EU? Is it better in or out?

There is no easy answer for the referendum question, but we can work out how interests are dividing businesses, political parties and the people of Britain. How interests are played out to the public by the media, and for whose interests? My suggestion is: Don’t trust politicians and the media. Trust your own feelings and make sure your decision will not come back to bite you. You maybe going to find a conclusion complete the opposite of mine, but that’s the beauty of democracy . After all, it will be your conclusion, your decision and not a third part decision based on third part interests sold to you cheaply. Do not sell your conclusion!

Like most of you, I am also worried. I am worried about the future of this country and about the future of my family. I also think we are all missing the point here. Most of the campaign on both sides are spending too much time on the economy and immigration issues when in my eyes these issues are not totally dependent on whether we are in or out of the European Union. In fact, China and the United States are the two main concerns regarding the state of the economy in the entire world including Europe and Britain. What they do and don’t can bring the whole system into crisis. Even the Euro Zone crisis was not caused just by the pit falls of the European Union, it came from abroad with no boarders or regulations being able to stop it. Immigration is also linked to international forces we can’t always control. The Euro Zone crisis brought a lot of Europeans with free movement into this country, that’s a fact. But wouldn’t they come anyway if we were out of the EU? Of course they would! People have moved around the globe for thousands of years and for thousands of reasons. The only difference is that the people working here legally today would be here otherwise illegally, but they would probably be here any way just as much as they are in the US and Germany because these countries are doing better. Leave the EU might double the number of illegal immigrants living in Britain, but it’s still just a possibility. In addition, there are thousands of Chinese, Indians, Africans, South Americans, Australians, Russians, Americans and people from all over the world living in Britain today, legally or illegally and none of them are part of the European Union. So, who would be there to stop the Portuguese, the Spanish, the French, and the Italians? Can we blame the immigration issue on the EU only?

An economic disaster in the Euro Zone would probably see levels of mass migration from Europe into Britain similar to those seen from Syria into Europe today, and this is regardless of whether Britain is in or out of the EU. When people feel threaten they move to a safer place whatever and wherever it is. So as long as the world is balanced and people are not forced out of their lands by bombs and famine, mass migration can be avoided. Britain is a vital player in maintaining this balance in the EU as well as throughout of the world. Whether we can play this role better in or out of the EU is a question we all must ask ourselves before voting on the referendum in just 10 days time. Building walls, closing boarders, sending the army or any other radical method offered by radicals today, have been tried before by old radicals and failed, and they will continue to fail until governments realise that it’s impossible to stop millions of people from fleeing wars to save their lives. It would be a crime against humanity anyway. The point here is that neither immigration nor the economy can be totally controlled by our government. Another important point to take into consideration is this: Some of our Laws and regulations are made by Brussels, but how better our government would do? The Liberals said they would not touch the University fees. The Labours wanted to tax our houses, and the Conservatives, well, the Conservatives said they would lead Turkey into the EU, and now they say otherwise.

The media claims the Conservative party is divided. Well, in my view their strategy is a win-win situation. If we vote out, David Cameron will step down and give way to Mr Boris Johnson. If we remain in the EU, David Cameron was always right. How would  Tories lose it? On the other hand, the Labour Party and the Liberals find themselves working for the Tories whatever way you look at it.

For us, the people, the problems with politics are the same. They lie just as much as they need to convince us to believe them. We should question what our politicians are doing with the power they already have. Are they doing a good job? Can we trust them? If you have any doubt, ask this question to Fire Fighters, Junior Doctors, Teachers, Tube Drivers, Black Cab Drivers, TATA Steel workers, University students, Disable people, the elderly, the soldiers. Ask them if we can trust our politicians and listen to what they have to say.   So why should I listen to politicians’ claims that we are losing sovereignty and decision making powers when they are unable to prove they can do a better job with the power they already have in their hands? They can’t blame everything on Europe all the time.

However, my main concern in leaving the EU is Peace. Peace in Europe is the bases of everything else in the lives of Europeans. Without Peace, there is no economy, no growth, no jobs, no integration, no holidays in Spain and Portugal, and no immigration control. Peace was the main reason behind the creation of the EU, and that idea stands firm today. Nazis and fascist groups are still strongly operating underground all over Europe including here in Britain. The way the EU stands today would be almost impossible for these radical groups to rise to power and cause another war in Europe, it’s been successful in that task for more than 70 years.  However, if the EU collapses as a result of Brexit (British Exit), the idea of 27 countries in Europe going their own ways, facing economic depression and unemployment, it would certainly create the perfect storm for such groups to rise up to power again. Russia would be looking to Europe with a lot of interests. We already know the consequences of this recipe. Who can guarantee that the British exit will not create such catastrophic situation? I prefer to believe in possibilities than just blindly believe in what I wish for the future, and the EU meltdown is a real possibility.

The reality is that, if I had a couple of million pounds invested in the EU, with the Brexit looming ahead, I would be very concerned about the future of my investments. I would be looking for a safer place to keep my money until the uncertainty goes away. It is almost certain that the price of gold will rise sharply just before the referendum, like after 9/11. People always tend to find a safer place for their money during difficult times. Thus, if every investor feels afraid of losing their investments, they will move away from the Euro zone causing the collapse of the Euro and a chain reaction with disastrous consequences. Of course it would be the worst case scenario, but who can guarantee it will not happened? I also like to start any analysis from the worst case scenario.  Personally, I believe that Britain would be probably better off out of the EU. Nevertheless, it’s the consequences of the exit, and how these consequences may affect the whole EU structure and eventually the balance of Peace, that concerns me the most.

Even if we leave the EU we will still need to change the way the EU operates because right now, it is not functioning the way it should. When the EU does not functions well our economy is affected. Be part of the decision making is vital to push for changes. Isolation in the 21st century is as ludicrous as the Trump Wall. The economy and the rest of the world are pretty much working as one single unity, and I believe Britain cannot have more control of its economy just by leaving the EU. The TATA Steel saga is one big evidence of that. Decisions about the future of thousands of British steel workers were decided in India. The decision of Arab countries to force the price of oil down in the past years caused thousands of job losses in Scotland. Be out of the EU would have made no difference in these cases. It seems to me that if we leave the EU, the concerns we have today such as immigration and the state of the economy, will continue to exist, but then there will be no turning back.

It is widely known that the older generation of Britain is more Europe skeptical and therefore, more likely to vote leave. My concern is this: My son is three and half years old and his generation is more likely to live the full consequences of the decisions made by the older generation today. Are we taking the future and the wishes of the young Brits into consideration when deciding whether to vote to remain or to leave the EU? or, are we thinking so selfishly and only taking into account what we feel about Europe today? The young Brits are most likely to vote to remain, so isn’t it the case for the old Brits to think and listen to the wishes of the young people about where they want Britain to be in the future? Some of the old people of Britain thinking about vote leave will see very little of how their votes will affect the future generations. My son is more likely to live the consequences of a Brexit his entire life. I decided to vote for the young people. I decided to vote for my son. I decided to vote for Peace in Europe. I decided to vote to remain. Good Luck Britain!