BRAZIL GOES OVER THE FALLS

By: Michaell Lange,

London, 24/05/18 –

After 10 years of strong economic growth, nearly full employment rates and a huge prospect for the future, Brazil, the 5th biggest country and the 6th biggest economy in the world, made a sharp turn towards the cliff edge.

Since Dilma Rousseff became the 36th President of Brazil in 2011, a political impasse between her presidency and the congress, brought the government to a halt. Rousseff, a technocrat with no talent for politics and even less abilities to articulate agreements with the opposition, became the pivot of the worst political crises since the military coup in 1964. Her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a very charismatic and a master of political articulation, made history by successfully fighting poverty and transforming Brazil’s economy.  Lula however, allowed an old and systematic culture of corruption in the government to carry on freely in order to fulfil his ambitious social policies which lifted over 30 million Brazilians from extreme poverty. Lula left the government in 2010 with over 80% popular approval, and a reputation recognised worldwide for his poverty reduction policies. For the 2010 general elections, Lula appointed Dilma Rousseff as his candidate, and despite never been elected for a public office before, and having very little political experience, Rousseff won the election to become the first female president of Brazil. However, she was very incompetent, she was possibly the most incompetent Brazilian president in history. But, she wanted to combat corruption. For that, she gave total freedom for the federal police to investigate any evidence of corruption in and out of the government. Although, she’s not recognised for that, Rousseff should be known as the mother of the so called “lava Jato” – Operation Car Wash – the biggest corruption investigation in Brazilian history. As the investigations deepened into State and Federal governments, politicians started to panic. The congress united to sort things out by impeaching Dilma Rousseff in a process where 75% of the politicians whom voted for her impeachment, were either under federal investigation or already formally accused of corruption and money laundering. Soon after Rousseff’s impeachment, the president of congress was sent to jail. Lula himself was jailed alongside some of the biggest businessmen in the country.

The new president, Michel Temer, is probably one of the most corrupt man in the land. He also implemented a plan of austerity to reinvigorate the economy by curbing workers rights, raising taxes and cutting social benefits meant to help the poor. It didn’t work. Unemployment rates rose from 4.5% in 2012 to 13% by December 2017. Inflation is at around 10% pushed by almost weekly rise in energy prices. While politicians fight each other in the congress, the economy nosedive. It’s one of the worst economic recessions in Brazilian history and things are rapidly getting worse.

Ten days ago a small group of truck drivers decided to block roads in protest against the rise of fuel prices. The price of Diesel reached R$ 3.80 Reais per litre. On average, a truck (lorry) makes 2.5 kilometres per litre, and drivers are paid about R$2.00 Reais per kilometre, which means an income of R$1.20 ($0.54 Dollar) per kilometre, and that’s before insurance, maintenance, taxes, toll roads, food, and other costs. It’s totally unsustainable!

As of today, with the support of many transport unions from all over the country, truck drivers stopped working nationwide. It’s been four days with only a hand full of trucks being able to deliver goods, these are mainly tankers, escorted by police vehicles to keep airports running. Supermarkets are running out of food and other goods. Petrol stations all over the country are running out of fuel. Perishable food is being wasted. Many slaughterhouses have been forced to stop. Thousands of litres of milk have been wasted daily as there is no way to transport it out from farms to supermarkets. Ports have been unable to load and unload cargo ships as there are no trucks available. Almost the totality of Brazil’s production is transported by road. The strike of truck drivers is causing a total meltdown of Brazil’s economy which could, in a matter of days, develop into a catastrophic social and economic disaster. So far, meetings between representatives of truck drivers and the government have ended without agreement. Authorities are predicting that if the situation remain the same, its a matter of days before the main airports start running out of fuel, and food shortage reach breaking point. If the government don’t find a solution for this crisis quickly, the strike will evolve into a general strike ending either with the collapse of the government or with another military coup. Neither of these options are good to Brazil. To make things more complicated, this October Brazil will vote again on a general election with no candidate with a clear plan to stop the fall before the crash. Many Brazilians fear the country could become another failed state such as Venezuela, many others think Brazil is already at that point. Will Brazil learn the lesson this time? Only time will tell.

RUSSIA, THE BRITISH MEDIA AND THE SALISBURY ATTACK

By: Michaell Lange,

London, 08/03/18 –

Last Sunday (04), Russian former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were victims of a chemical attack in Salisbury, England. Both are critically ill in hospital. A police officer which helped when they collapsed near the restaurant they were in, was also hospitalised, but thought to be now, out of danger.

Last Sunday’s attack reminds us of a similar case when another double Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko was poisoned at a hotel in London in 2006, which investigators concluded it most probably had been carried out with the approval of the Kremlin.

Soon after the identity of the victims of this attack became public, the media jumped at the speculation that it was just another case of state style assassination. Both Alexander Litvinenko killed in 2006, and Sergei Skripal, now fighting for his life after Sundays chemical attack, were accused by the Kremlin to have passed information to the British Secret Service, the MI6. Although, the agents always denied these accusations.

It is not a surprise that the British media was quick to assume that Russia must be behind the attack. However, we also know now that Sergei was working on cyber security, which will almost certainly give more food for thoughts to the investigators. It seems the British media loves any opportunity to criticise Russia and its president Vladimir Putin. But, how much different from other states Russia’s behaviour really is?

The first thing one must understand is that we cannot analise Russia differently than the way we analise any other country. Countries behave in a way to protect and pursuit their interests. Realism thinking explains well state behaviour. States compete against each other and they never trust each other. Even within the so called Five Eyes, a group of countries made by The USA, The UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, there are mistrust and competition. States always compete for power and therefore, against each other!

Russia, like any other country in the world, has the right to defend itself. However, the media appears to treat Russia in a different way as if Russians should follow a different rule from the rest of the world. The Media poses president Vladimir Putin as a bad guy who wants to invade the whole world and make Russian the world’s number one language. But, let’s be honest, to believe that Putin has the will or even the power to take on the rest of the world is nothing but a bad joke.

The state of Russia behaves just like any other country in the world. They want to stay alive, protect their interests and when possible, yes, pursuit their importance in the world stage.

Here in Britain, just a few weeks ago we were debating whether we should kill British nationals or non-nationals abroad, whenever they pose a threat to the UK. The fact is, when we identify a threat we send a drone to blow them up, and in many cases, we blow up innocent women and children together with our target. We invade other states air space to kill people we don’t like, so if Russia is doing the same we should not be surprised. Of course we are all horrified with the possibility of Russian agents killing people on the streets of Britain. It’s totally unacceptable! But, this is just the way International Relations works. Diplomacy followed by, or together with, direct or proxy actions.

States will do whatever they need to do to defend their interests, either for instance, by arresting Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden and Julian Assange, or killing, using secret service agents and drones. Dr kelly’s death still causing questions as wether he killed himself or was assassinated for exposing the truth about Iraq weapons of mass destruction.

If Russia is found to be behind this attack, we must respond with actions such as visa restrictions, and possibly banning Russians from buying property, companies or invest in the UK, though it is very unlikely since conservatives receive hundreds of millions of Pounds in Russians donation.

Although, so far we know very little about last weekend attack in Salisbury, most of us would agree that there is a high probability that Russia could well be behind this attack. Nevertheless, no matter how unacceptable this behaviour might be, we should not judge Russia’s behaviour any differently than the way we judge ourselves. All we know so far is that Sergei is a former Russian spy and was victim of a chemical attack. Anything beyond that is pure and simple opportunistic speculation.

 

TRUMP IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO WORLD PEACE SINCE WWII

By: Michaell Lange,

London, 26/02/17 –

Firstly, when Trump challenged the main stream media, I thought it was a good thing. The media is too powerful and don’t like to be challenged. The media protect their interests and must be challenged. So, criticism coming from an American president was the perfect match. There is no doubt that fake news is a huge problem throughout the media spectrum, and it was clear that the media, especially in America, did everything they could to destroy Trumps campaign. It didn’t work. The media was in fact, pivotal for Trumps victory. They were the victims of their own rating ambition. But, the way Trump has carried out his anti-media campaign went from what should’ve been positive criticism, to an outright full force attack. That’s not only bad for democracy, it’s highly dangerous!

Secondly, I thought he was going to challenge the so called establishment, and in doing so it would be normal to see the entire structure of the system shaking to the core. But, Trumps speech at CPAC is so far, the clearest evidence that Trump has decided to live in his own echo chamber by allowing in only people he likes. He completely disregards everyone else who don’t agree with him. Moreover, his plans for America Army is toxic and can drag the world back to the Cold War. That’s also not good for America!

Thirdly, when Trump had his Ban on citizens from seven muslims countries overturned by a federal judge, he should’ve appealed and followed the legal process of justice, instead, he attacked one of the core foundations of the Nation, by referring to the Judge as “the so called judge”. To any American citizen who praise their Constitutional rights, this should be enough to realise that Donald Trump isn’t really worried about their citizens rights and the Rule of Law.

Now, Trump announces he is doing another thing he promised during his elections campaign. He said during the CPAC, he believes in Peace by strength (a concept that never worked), and that he will make “American Military, bigger, better and stronger like never before”. He also said “it will be one of the greatest military buildups in American history”. The fact is, American military power is already the biggest military force the world has ever seen. The second best is centuries behind. But, his speech at CPAC has made me think about Vladimir Putin. The guy whom the West like to refer to as “the crazy guy”, “the dictator”, “the dangerous man” etc. I watched Trumps speech imagining what would be the reaction of the West if that exact speech was coming from the mouth of Vladimir Putin, under the ovation of the Russian people? Imagine Putin saying he will make Russia win again and no one will dare to mess with Russia again. Imagine that?

On the other hand, I was waiting for Vladimir Putins reaction to Trumps speech, and like most of us, I was waiting for something strong as like many of you, I also believe Putin has indeed a couple os loose screws in his head, though he’s far from being stupid. But, there was nothing from the man itself. The only response coming from Russia was from a concerned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, saying that an American military buildup could restart the cold war, and that’s very true. It is also true that a replay of an arms race will again, ends with no winners.

What also concerns me is the efficacy of Trump’s “Peace by Strength”. In fact, an American military buildup will not make America greater or safer again. The risks of total armageddon during the cold war should have been a lesson for Donald Trump. More military power does not mean more security. Buildup the military, specially the nuclear power, will increase the chances of accidental war as well as nuclear terrorism. It will make nuclear countries to feel even more nervous, and it will be used as justification for other countries to develop their own nuclear weapons. It’s a mad idea! And, there is another big problem. Money! The US total debt stands as a colossus $66 trillion Dollars, or $809 thousand Dollars per family, which in return has only $10 thousand Dollars in savings per family. Where the money will come from Mr President? That’s a question only an adviser with balls can dare to ask Mr Trump. I don’t think Mexico will pay for that too.

I can’t stop looking back in time, more precisely to the beginning of the 20th century and draw parallels to what is happening today. Nationalism rising rapidly all around the world especially in America and Europe. The Arms race that will follow a buildup of American military. The Political and Military Alliances between Russia and China to face NATO. The conflicts in North Africa as well as the Ukraine crisis can be compared to the conflicts in the Balkans, and a possible collapse of the European Union could be the catalyst for total disaster. Frankly, we are heading that way!

In the 1930s when Hitler came to power, the Germans saw him as their saviour, just like millions of Americans see Trump today. The Germans had no idea that in 10 years time, their saviour would be dead and their country would be devastated by war and hated by the world. The Brits and millions of Americans would never believe Brexit and Trump had any chance to happen. The Germans would never thought their saviour could bring so much devastation to the world and to themselves. In fact, the Germans believed Hitler would be good to all German people. If you think I am comparing Trump to Hitler, that is exactly what I am doing. The potencial to world disaster under Trumps seems just as equal. There is a lot of similarities between Trumps atitude to Hitler and Mussolinis. They share the same mix of selfishness and egocentrism which is characteristics of all dictators. Like Hitler, Trump negotiates by intimidation. The violence is different of course, but the time is different too. However, the rhetoric is the same. The thing is, the less we believe that very bad things can happen again, the bigger is the chance it will happen again. Its important to consider that the comparison between Hitler and Trump must be regarded to their moment in time. Therefore, the comparison here is limited to the rise of Hitler and not to the end of his regime. Hitler cannot change his past, but Trump can still change his future.

It seems that American government is following exactly everything they criticise about authoritarian governments. The arrest of Journalists during Trumps inauguration, the censure of CNN, BBC, NYT and other, from White House as well as the rhetoric promoted by Trump in just over a Month in power, is very similar of those of dictators we criticise so much. The White House never looked so similar to the Kremlin. Perhaps similar to an early Hitler or Mussolini, ruthless dictators nevertheless. Trump is dividing America and the world. He is creating a lot of tension and division in just over a month of his first term. This cannot be good for America. His ultra nationalistic approach and attack on immigrants and religion, has created chaos around the world. This is not the American way! Trump could have been the American president of the century, but he blew everything in just over a month. God knows what he is going to do in the next 4 years. God Bless America! and God Bless us all!

BRAZILIAN POLITICS: A SHORT OVERVIEW

BY: Michaell Lange,

London, 01/09/16 –

Brazilian politics have come to a dramatic new low this week when the democratic elected President Dilma Rousseff, was impeached by the Senate for allegedly crime of responsibility. She was accused of manipulating figures to hide deficits on government budgets though, most of Brazilian Presidents, as well as state governors, have done the same in the past and were never prosecuted for any wrong doing. It’s a fact. Manipulate figures to hide holes in the budget is a common practice in all levels of Brazilian government and Dilma Rousseff was not an exception. But this is the least of the problems. Most of the Senators and federal deputies participating in this impeachment process have been accused of much more serious crimes.

National and international media, have also been reporting confusing and misleading views about what is really going on in Brazil. An Sky News correspondent reporting from Washington has said on TV that the Impeachment is part of a clean up on Brazilian politics when it is actually the opposite. A twit outlined it perfectly: “Imagine a country where the biggest anti-corruption operation in its history ended up with all the accused taking power?” That is a fact! Some Brazilian news papers the day after the impeachment said in the first page “A new chapter” and “Viva Democracy”. Similarities to the day after the military coup in 1964 was disturbing to say the least.

The whole political crises started with the reelection of Dilma Rousseff as Brazilian President in October 2014. She defeated Aécio Neves from the PSDB party which formed a coalition with other right wing parties to try to put an end on a 13 years of leftist government; first elected in 2003 with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the Brazilian labour party, the PT. During the 8 years of Lula´s presidency, Brazil grew like never before. Social inclusion and other social programs have pulled over 30 million Brazilians from extreme poverty. By the end of his second mandate his approval rate were over 80%. His charm and charisma made Lula a global figure. For the next presidencial election he appointed a successful technocrat from his government, a friend, and also militant that has fought with the rebels during the military regime between 1964 and 1985. Dilma Rousseff, was arrested and tortured by the military regime. She survived 20 years of military dictatorship and guerrilla warfare that killed many of her friends. She is also a cancer survival. She was Minister of Mines and Energy and Chief of Staff in Lula´s government. But until 2011 she has never been elected. Dilma was an experienced technocrat, but she was not a politician. She haven’t even a fraction of Lula´s charisma, but she was the first woman to be elected president of the 7th biggest economy in the world. Lula was so powerful that it is said that if he had appointed a homeless he would probably be elected. While Lula became a global figure, Dilma decided to concentrate inwards. As Brazil was taken by a serious of corruption scandals involving mainly her own party, she gave freedom for the Federal Police and the supreme court to investigate and arrest anybody, close to her or not. Some of PTs senior members such as the ex-Minister José Dirceu and the national president of PT, José Genoíno were both found guilt of corruption and sent to prison. No such thing has ever happened in Brazil before! The scandals of corruption has weakened the labour party though. The slow down of Chinese economy also put an end on Brazils economic boom. Dilma Rousseff also started to show weaknesses in leadership. Despite her true patriotism and sensitivity regarding social issues, she was not competente enough or a leader as such, and that’s a fact. She was a horrible speaker and communicator. Comedians targeted her for her countless gaffes. Differently from her predecessor Lula, she was unable to work and make alliances with the opposition. The fact that she was a woman, also made it difficult to deal with an extreme conservative and sexist Brazilian right wing politicians. The right wing in Brazil are formed mainly by the evangelical bench, the military bench (also know as the bullet bench), and the ruralists. When they united against Dilma Rousseff her fate was set, and the country was going to pay the price for this political struggle.

The opposition, led by Aécio Neves from PSDB, thought that PT was finished and had no chance to win the next presidential election that was held in October 2014. In fact, if the opposition had a better candidate than the playboy Aécio Neves, they would almost certainly have won the election, but they messed up big time and lost the election by a small margin.

The Federal Police investigations were by then, starting to catch up with many of the opposition leaders and their political parties, including Aécio Neves. The so called OPERAÇÃO LAVA JATO or OPERATION CAR WASH, the same Federal Police operation that led to the arrest of José Dirceu and José Genoíno from PT for corruption, were now focused on a pile of evidence of corruption and money laundering involving most of the top members of the opposition parties. Most of the accusations were down to millions of pounds received by political parties and politicians under the carpet from big corporations in exchange of multibillionaire government contracts. Nevertheless, some of these politicians were involved in far serious crimes. Perhaps the most serious case became known as the “helicoca”. In 2013 an investigation carried out by the Brazilian Federal Police to combat narcotraffic led to the arrest of a helicopter with half a ton of pure cocaine in a farm in the State of Espirito Santo. The helicopter was found to belong to Zezé Perrella, a Senator and very close friend and political ally of Aécio Neves, the right wing candidate for president which is also known for his addictions to drugs and playboy life style. The media (mostly controlled by right wing politicians), gave very little coverage to the case and at the end, nobody was formally accused or prosecuted. The helicopter was returned to its owner, the pilot which was a Mr Perrella employee, were released without charge and the drug disappeared in thin air. Another case involving a supporter for the impeachment was the former Governor for the State of São Paulo and former Mayor of the city of São Paulo,  Paulo Maluff, also a close ally of Aécio Neves. He has been sentenced to 2 years in prison by the French justice for money laundering and countless accusations of corruption. Eduardo Cunha, the president of the Brazilian Chamber of Deputy and currently suspended for corruption and money laundering accusations, was also an articulator of the impeachment and voted to remove Dilma this week despite his conditions with the Law. The president of the national Senate, Renan Calheiros, has also been accused of corruption and money laundering and countless accusations of corruption. In total, over 60% of all Senators and Deputies who voted for the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff are either under the Federal Police investigation, or have already been found guilty of corruption and other crimes. Even Michel Temer, the successor of Dilma Rousseff has been under Federal Police investigation. The Brazilian Federal Police has strong evidence against all of the accused and the OPERATION CAR WASH was closing in on them very fast before the impeachment. But now with Dilma out, everything changed.

When Dilma Rousseff was suspended by the Senate Chamber earlier this year, her interim Michel Temer, now permanent successor, was quickly to create his own new cabinet which included 8 Ministers under investigation for corruption and money laundering. It is also composed entirely by white men. All of them, including the President, now enjoy parliamentary immunity against any previous accusations or investigation by OPERATION CAR WASH. It means that even if the Federal Police found them guilty of any crime, none of them will be prosecuted or arrested. Moreover, immediately after been sworn in as the new Brazilian President, Michel Temer started to work with his new cabinet to change Oil exploration rules introduced by Former president Lula, which gives the state Oil giant Petrobras, superior powers to control the Oil industry in the country. The new President is planing to give more freedom over the Oil exploration in Brazil to international firms and  to start plans to privatise Petrobras. The urgency in which he was dealing with this subject has raised some eyebrows. He also started almost immediately, to cut workers’ rights, giving more freedom to employers to fire employees. He is rolling back many of social polices and programmes introduced by Lula including the finance of athletes. Michel Temer also ended the Ministry of Culture.

The impeachment of Dilma Rousseff most certainly put an end to OPERATION CAR WASH. The top people being investigated by the Federal Police are now in Michel Temers cabinet and protected by Parliamentary immunity. The impeachment also dumped the democratic election of 2014. It actually, overturned the result. It turned democracy in its head as the people in power today are exactly the ones who lost the election back in 2014. Despite all the evidence, they still deny the coup d’état. If it’s not a coup, it’s hard to know what that would it be. As the people protested at Paulista Avenue against the impeachment, a woman was shot in the eye by a rubber bullet from the military police. She lost the left eye. A big protest set for this coming Sunday (4) was outlawed by Michel Temer who also ordered the army to “maintain security” on the streets. It seems it’s not just a coup, it’s increasingly more likely to be a declaration of war against Brazilian people.

 

BRITISH REFERENDUM ON THE EUROPEAN UNION (OPINION)

By: Michaell Lange,

London, 10/06/16 –

 

Yesterday I posted my vote on the British Referendum on European Union. Like many of us I was confused and extremely disappointed by the way both sides of the campaign have been conducting their arguments to the public. It is no surprise that the trust on politicians is so low. The fact is, we cannot trust them! So I decided to do my own research and make a decision based on my feelings and experience. I have a degree in International Relations and Politics and this helped me to separate the truth from the false, at least as far as my eyes can see.

The first thing I have done was to go back to the bases of the European Union. What was the main reason for Europe to unite and create such a huge and complicated institution that we know today as The European Union? How did we get to the point we are today and what would be the real arguments to remain or to leave the EU? Is it better in or out?

There is no easy answer for the referendum question, but we can work out how interests are dividing businesses, political parties and the people of Britain. How interests are played out to the public by the media, and for whose interests? My suggestion is: Don’t trust politicians and the media. Trust your own feelings and make sure your decision will not come back to bite you. You maybe going to find a conclusion complete the opposite of mine, but that’s the beauty of democracy . After all, it will be your conclusion, your decision and not a third part decision based on third part interests sold to you cheaply. Do not sell your conclusion!

Like most of you, I am also worried. I am worried about the future of this country and about the future of my family. I also think we are all missing the point here. Most of the campaign on both sides are spending too much time on the economy and immigration issues when in my eyes these issues are not totally dependent on whether we are in or out of the European Union. In fact, China and the United States are the two main concerns regarding the state of the economy in the entire world including Europe and Britain. What they do and don’t can bring the whole system into crisis. Even the Euro Zone crisis was not caused just by the pit falls of the European Union, it came from abroad with no boarders or regulations being able to stop it. Immigration is also linked to international forces we can’t always control. The Euro Zone crisis brought a lot of Europeans with free movement into this country, that’s a fact. But wouldn’t they come anyway if we were out of the EU? Of course they would! People have moved around the globe for thousands of years and for thousands of reasons. The only difference is that the people working here legally today would be here otherwise illegally, but they would probably be here any way just as much as they are in the US and Germany because these countries are doing better. Leave the EU might double the number of illegal immigrants living in Britain, but it’s still just a possibility. In addition, there are thousands of Chinese, Indians, Africans, South Americans, Australians, Russians, Americans and people from all over the world living in Britain today, legally or illegally and none of them are part of the European Union. So, who would be there to stop the Portuguese, the Spanish, the French, and the Italians? Can we blame the immigration issue on the EU only?

An economic disaster in the Euro Zone would probably see levels of mass migration from Europe into Britain similar to those seen from Syria into Europe today, and this is regardless of whether Britain is in or out of the EU. When people feel threaten they move to a safer place whatever and wherever it is. So as long as the world is balanced and people are not forced out of their lands by bombs and famine, mass migration can be avoided. Britain is a vital player in maintaining this balance in the EU as well as throughout of the world. Whether we can play this role better in or out of the EU is a question we all must ask ourselves before voting on the referendum in just 10 days time. Building walls, closing boarders, sending the army or any other radical method offered by radicals today, have been tried before by old radicals and failed, and they will continue to fail until governments realise that it’s impossible to stop millions of people from fleeing wars to save their lives. It would be a crime against humanity anyway. The point here is that neither immigration nor the economy can be totally controlled by our government. Another important point to take into consideration is this: Some of our Laws and regulations are made by Brussels, but how better our government would do? The Liberals said they would not touch the University fees. The Labours wanted to tax our houses, and the Conservatives, well, the Conservatives said they would lead Turkey into the EU, and now they say otherwise.

The media claims the Conservative party is divided. Well, in my view their strategy is a win-win situation. If we vote out, David Cameron will step down and give way to Mr Boris Johnson. If we remain in the EU, David Cameron was always right. How would  Tories lose it? On the other hand, the Labour Party and the Liberals find themselves working for the Tories whatever way you look at it.

For us, the people, the problems with politics are the same. They lie just as much as they need to convince us to believe them. We should question what our politicians are doing with the power they already have. Are they doing a good job? Can we trust them? If you have any doubt, ask this question to Fire Fighters, Junior Doctors, Teachers, Tube Drivers, Black Cab Drivers, TATA Steel workers, University students, Disable people, the elderly, the soldiers. Ask them if we can trust our politicians and listen to what they have to say.   So why should I listen to politicians’ claims that we are losing sovereignty and decision making powers when they are unable to prove they can do a better job with the power they already have in their hands? They can’t blame everything on Europe all the time.

However, my main concern in leaving the EU is Peace. Peace in Europe is the bases of everything else in the lives of Europeans. Without Peace, there is no economy, no growth, no jobs, no integration, no holidays in Spain and Portugal, and no immigration control. Peace was the main reason behind the creation of the EU, and that idea stands firm today. Nazis and fascist groups are still strongly operating underground all over Europe including here in Britain. The way the EU stands today would be almost impossible for these radical groups to rise to power and cause another war in Europe, it’s been successful in that task for more than 70 years.  However, if the EU collapses as a result of Brexit (British Exit), the idea of 27 countries in Europe going their own ways, facing economic depression and unemployment, it would certainly create the perfect storm for such groups to rise up to power again. Russia would be looking to Europe with a lot of interests. We already know the consequences of this recipe. Who can guarantee that the British exit will not create such catastrophic situation? I prefer to believe in possibilities than just blindly believe in what I wish for the future, and the EU meltdown is a real possibility.

The reality is that, if I had a couple of million pounds invested in the EU, with the Brexit looming ahead, I would be very concerned about the future of my investments. I would be looking for a safer place to keep my money until the uncertainty goes away. It is almost certain that the price of gold will rise sharply just before the referendum, like after 9/11. People always tend to find a safer place for their money during difficult times. Thus, if every investor feels afraid of losing their investments, they will move away from the Euro zone causing the collapse of the Euro and a chain reaction with disastrous consequences. Of course it would be the worst case scenario, but who can guarantee it will not happened? I also like to start any analysis from the worst case scenario.  Personally, I believe that Britain would be probably better off out of the EU. Nevertheless, it’s the consequences of the exit, and how these consequences may affect the whole EU structure and eventually the balance of Peace, that concerns me the most.

Even if we leave the EU we will still need to change the way the EU operates because right now, it is not functioning the way it should. When the EU does not functions well our economy is affected. Be part of the decision making is vital to push for changes. Isolation in the 21st century is as ludicrous as the Trump Wall. The economy and the rest of the world are pretty much working as one single unity, and I believe Britain cannot have more control of its economy just by leaving the EU. The TATA Steel saga is one big evidence of that. Decisions about the future of thousands of British steel workers were decided in India. The decision of Arab countries to force the price of oil down in the past years caused thousands of job losses in Scotland. Be out of the EU would have made no difference in these cases. It seems to me that if we leave the EU, the concerns we have today such as immigration and the state of the economy, will continue to exist, but then there will be no turning back.

It is widely known that the older generation of Britain is more Europe skeptical and therefore, more likely to vote leave. My concern is this: My son is three and half years old and his generation is more likely to live the full consequences of the decisions made by the older generation today. Are we taking the future and the wishes of the young Brits into consideration when deciding whether to vote to remain or to leave the EU? or, are we thinking so selfishly and only taking into account what we feel about Europe today? The young Brits are most likely to vote to remain, so isn’t it the case for the old Brits to think and listen to the wishes of the young people about where they want Britain to be in the future? Some of the old people of Britain thinking about vote leave will see very little of how their votes will affect the future generations. My son is more likely to live the consequences of a Brexit his entire life. I decided to vote for the young people. I decided to vote for my son. I decided to vote for Peace in Europe. I decided to vote to remain. Good Luck Britain!